Ireland will require approximately 50,000 long-term residential care beds by 2040 to meet the needs of a rapidly ageing population, according to new research from the Economic and Social Research Institute.
The ESRI study, funded by the Department of Health, reveals that the number of people aged 85 and over is projected to more than double in the coming years, creating unprecedented demand for elder care services.
By 2040, one in five people in Ireland will be over 65, fundamentally reshaping the country’s healthcare requirements. The research shows that both residential care and home support services will need to increase by at least 60% to meet this demographic shift.
Currently, Ireland has an estimated 33,324 combined short-stay and long-stay beds in long-term residential care homes. Long-stay bed requirements are projected to grow from 29,579 beds in 2022 to between 47,590 and 53,270 beds by 2040 – an increase of 61% to 80%.
Short-stay beds will see even steeper growth, rising from 3,745 beds in 2022 to between 6,430 and 7,265 beds by 2040, representing growth of 72% to 94%.
Home support services face similar pressures. Nearly 29 million home support hours were provided to older people in 2022, with three-quarters delivered through the HSE and a quarter privately purchased. This demand is projected to grow to between 44.9 million and 54.9 million hours annually by 2040.
Lead author Dr Brendan Walsh emphasized that Ireland’s improved life expectancy, driven by reduced mortality at older ages, creates a much larger population requiring long-term care services.
Health Minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said the research will “help us plan better,” pointing to the Programme for Government’s commitment to build more public nursing home beds and create a homecare scheme. Budget 2025 allocated €4 million to staff and open 615 new community beds.
The Department of Health and HSE are developing a new Long-Term Residential Care Additional Capacity Plan for publication in 2025.