Nations’ pledges project only 10% reduction by 2035 against required 60% to limit warming to 1.5°C
Global carbon emissions are on track to fall just 10% by 2035 based on national climate pledges—far below the 60% reduction scientists say is necessary to limit catastrophic warming—the United Nations warned ahead of crucial COP30 climate talks.
UN Climate Change released emissions calculations showing an insufficient 10% cut by 2035, cautioning it could not provide a robust overview after most countries failed to submit updated climate plans on time. Just 64 of nearly 200 parties to the Paris Agreement submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions by the September deadline.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has stated emissions must fall 60% by 2035 from 2019 levels for a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the Paris Agreement’s more ambitious target.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell acknowledged the 10% estimate suggests “humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough”.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated last week that slow action makes it “inevitable” that efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C would fail in the short term, unleashing devastating impacts during an overshoot period.
The UN’s estimate incorporated submissions from major emitters including the United States (made before President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from Paris), China’s pledge to reduce emissions 7-10% by 2035—its first absolute national target—and the European Union’s commitment to cut emissions 66.25-72.5% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels.
With average warming already around 1.4°C, many scientists believe the 1.5°C threshold will likely be breached before decade’s end as fossil fuel burning continues.
The two-week COP30 negotiations begin November 10 in Brazil’s Amazon region.