Budget 2025 will give modest benefits for an average household, but it will not significantly reduce overall poverty levels, as per an analysis by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
According to ESRI research, the untargeted cost-of-living measures like energy credits and double child benefit payments could have been better utilised.
ESRI estimates that the funds spent on these measures would have been enough to fund a new tier of child benefits, potentially lifting 40,000 youngsters out of poverty.
There are also concerns about the effects of scaling back cost-of-living supports. The ESRI warned that without targeted welfare increases, reducing or eliminating these measures could increase poverty risks for pensioners and people with disabilities. These groups rely heavily on these supports to manage everyday expenses.
One specific measure, the energy credit, is set to decrease from €450 to €250, a cut that the ESRI says will disproportionately impact households on fixed incomes, such as pensioners.
For many in this group, the energy credit represents a substantial share of their income, and the reduction could cause financial strain.
The ESRI also emphasised that temporary cost-of-living measures have been a critical source of assistance for many households in recent budgets. Without these supports, the institute projects that the at-risk-of-poverty rate among retired households would rise by as much as five percentage points compared to the 2025 estimates.