Ireland will require up to 8,000 additional public hospital beds by 2040 to meet the healthcare demands of a rapidly growing and ageing population, according to a major new study.
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report, funded by the Department of Health, paints a stark picture of the capacity challenges facing the Irish health system over the next decade and a half. The research projects a need for between 5,091 and 7,780 additional in-patient and day-patient beds in acute hospitals.
The projections are driven by significant demographic changes expected across Ireland. The population is forecast to grow from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 million and 6.3 million by 2040, but the most critical factor is the ageing of the population.
The number of people aged 65 and over will increase dramatically from one in seven people in 2023 to one in five by 2040. This demographic shift is particularly significant because older adults accounted for over 60% of in-patient bed days in 2023, despite representing a much smaller portion of the population.
The ESRI study breaks down the requirements into specific categories: between 4,400 and 6,800 additional in-patient beds by 2040, representing an increase of 40% to 60% over current capacity. Additionally, the health system will need between 650 and 950 new day-patient beds, an increase of 25% to 37%.
The report also forecasts substantial increases in other hospital services. Emergency Department attendances could rise by up to 444,000 per year compared to current figures, while outpatient department visits may increase by up to 1.3 million annually.
The government has already acknowledged the scale of the challenge. In May 2024, plans were published for 3,378 new beds by 2031, excluding those at the National Rehabilitation Hospital. The ESRI noted that if these targets are delivered, they would exceed the projected upper range of requirements by that year, providing the level of ambition necessary to meet 2040 demands.
Health Minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill acknowledged the capacity challenges highlighted by the report. “Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce requires careful long-term planning,” she said.
The minister pointed to recent progress, noting that 1,218 new acute in-patient beds were opened between 2020 and 2024. She emphasized that the Programme for Government has committed to delivering thousands more beds through the acute bed capacity expansion plan, new surgical hubs, and elective treatment centres.
“With unprecedented uplift in funding and workforce increases in recent years, we are targeting future capital investment where it is needed most,” Carroll MacNeill added.
The ESRI findings underscore the enormous healthcare infrastructure investment required to serve Ireland’s changing demographics, highlighting the urgent need for sustained long-term planning and funding to prevent a healthcare capacity crisis.