New data reveals emissions targets breached nine months early as renewable energy stagnates
Ireland’s transport sector has already exhausted its entire carbon budget for 2025, breaching its emissions allocation in September and now consuming credits meant for future years, according to new data from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland.
The SEAI’s provisional figures reveal a troubling picture for the country’s climate commitments. While transport emissions dropped 2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, the reduction proved insufficient to keep the sector within its allocated carbon limits. Having exceeded its 2025 budget, transport is now drawing from emissions allocations designated for 2026 to 2030.
The electricity sector faces similar challenges. Despite emissions from power generation remaining stable, the SEAI projects that this sector will breach its carbon budget in November. Demand for electricity rose 2.8% during the period, but renewable energy generation failed to keep pace with last year’s levels. Instead, Ireland met increased demand largely through imported power from neighboring countries.
The residential sector emerged as the sole bright spot in the data, remaining on track to stay within its carbon budget by year’s end.
The findings underscore mounting pressure on Ireland to accelerate its decarbonization efforts, particularly in transportation, where the overshoot threatens to compromise the country’s medium-term climate goals. The SEAI emphasized that significant policy interventions will be necessary to prevent further budget breaches.