Ireland is on track to miss its 2030 carbon emissions targets by over 50%, potentially triggering tens of billions of euros in EU fines that climate experts say could have been better spent helping citizens and the economy transition to cleaner energy.
New Environmental Protection Agency figures reveal a stark picture of Ireland’s climate performance, showing the country will fall dramatically short of both its own greenhouse gas reduction goals and EU-mandated targets by the end of the decade.
The failure to meet EU Effort Sharing Regulations could result in massive financial penalties, with Ireland forced to compensate overachieving member states for their surplus carbon reductions. Professor Peter Thorne of Maynooth University questioned the logic of this approach.
“Why would you not spend that money now to help citizens and the economy? Why would you instead send that money to overachieving states?” Thorne said. “In effect we’ll be sending billions of euro to Spain. And even then, after that we’ll still have to reduce our emissions.”
The EPA’s comprehensive report examined performance across multiple sectors, revealing significant variations in progress. While renewables and electricity generation are performing reasonably well, three critical areas are failing badly: transport, industry, and building heating systems.
EPA director general Laura Burke described the lack of progress as “concerning,” noting that while momentum is building for Ireland’s transition to a low-carbon society, “we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition.”
The agricultural sector presents particular challenges, with emissions expected to reduce by only 16% against targets that the EPA now considers “no longer viable” due to updated scientific assumptions. Meanwhile, emissions from the land sector are projected to increase by up to 95% by 2030, primarily due to Ireland’s maturing forests reaching harvesting age.
Professor Hannah Daly of University College Cork described Ireland’s performance as “a staggering missed opportunity” given the scale of potential EU fines. She argued that meeting climate obligations requires more than government ambition.
“It requires leadership, vast investment, and prioritising only truly sustainable economic growth,” Daly said. “That means rapidly phasing out fossil fuels by prioritising renewables, electrification, and energy efficiency, and shifting away from an economic model overly reliant on fossil fuels and carbon-intensive agriculture.”
The experts emphasized that responsibility extends beyond government action. Professor Thorne noted that “we all have to show some ambition in terms of what we can do — in how we spend our money, our time, and what kind of world we want to give to our children.”
The findings highlight a critical juncture for Irish climate policy, with experts arguing that immediate substantial investment in emissions reduction would be more economically beneficial than paying massive fines to other EU countries while still facing the same emissions reduction requirements afterward.