In a recent analysis of opinion polls, Sinn Féin is poised to become the largest single party in the next general election in Ireland, according to exclusive projections by the Sunday Independent. The data indicates that Mary Lou McDonald’s party is set to double its current number of TDs (Teachta Dála) in the Dáil, with a potential 67 seats. However, forming a government with an absolute majority of 87 seats out of 174 remains a challenging task for Sinn Féin.
The projections suggest that Fine Gael is expected to secure 40 seats with 21 percent of the vote, while Fianna Fáil may win 35 seats with 18 percent of the vote. The Social Democrats are poised to make significant gains with an estimated 6 percent of the vote and 9 seats.
On the other hand, the Green Party is expected to face a setback, losing 3 percent of its nationwide support and potentially retaining only one seat due to controversies surrounding fuel taxes and bicycle path construction.
The Labor Party is not anticipated to make significant gains, with just three seats in contention. Meanwhile, independent candidates could secure up to 10 percent of the vote and 15 seats.
While Sinn Féin seems to be the most likely contender to form a government, it is unlikely to do so with smaller parties. If a coalition were to form between Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil, political experts predict a potential majority of 102 seats, although it’s worth noting that Fianna Fáil’s historical reluctance to partner with Sinn Féin may influence their decision.
In the upcoming election, the Irish political landscape appears poised for change, with Sinn Féin emerging as a significant player, but the complexities of coalition-building and political alliances will ultimately shape the future government.