Security experts have cautioned that the European Union’s new defense white paper, despite its ambitious €800 billion funding proposal, is unlikely to help Ireland address its critical military capability gaps.
The European Commission’s first white paper on European defense, launched Wednesday, outlines plans to raise substantial funds through loans and debt to help EU countries acquire military equipment. The document emphasizes the urgent need for member states to “pool” their efforts in response to what it characterizes as Russia’s growing threat to European security.
However, leading academics believe Ireland will find itself “at the end of an increasingly frantic queue” for military hardware, with little prospect of accelerated acquisition of essential equipment.
“At first glance, it’s unlikely to provide significant advantages for Ireland,” said Mervyn O’Driscoll from University College Cork’s School of History. “It’s no secret that the country faces substantial and well-documented capability gaps and, unfortunately, proactive measures were not taken much sooner.”
The Defense Forces continue to lack critical technologies recommended by the Commission on Defense Forces three years ago, including primary radar systems and naval sonar technology. The Commission also recommended increasing the naval service to nine operational vessels.
Rory Finegan, deputy director of the Centre for Military History and Strategic Studies at Maynooth University, expressed skepticism about Ireland’s position: “While the Government has signalled a move towards [Level of Ambition 3], the procurement aspect of same will be hard to achieve, certainly in the short term.”
“We are a small player at the end of an increasingly frantic queue in the European defense procurement market,” Finegan added, noting that as a non-NATO member, Ireland “will not be viewed as a priority” by the defense industry.
Tánaiste Simon Harris, who serves as both Minister for Defence and Foreign Affairs, stated last month that he had asked officials to “review” the timescales for certain defense initiatives. The government has indicated support for moving from the Commission’s second option to the third option sometime after 2028.
Former Defence Forces officer Declan Power suggested that the Department of Defence should consult the private sector to assist with procurement, emphasizing that “primary radar and sonar procurement needs to be sped up.”
According to The Irish Examiner, the EU white paper specifically warns that “Russia — already the most heavily armed European state by a huge distance — is now running a war economy,” and that “Russia will remain a fundamental threat to Europe’s security for the foreseeable future.”