According to The Journal, in a stunning political showdown, Fianna Fáil has emerged as the clear winner of the 2024 Irish General Election, securing 48 seats and positioning Micheál Martin for a potential return to the role of Taoiseach.
The 34th Dáil will convene on 18 December, with the political map of Ireland dramatically redrawn after an intense three-week campaign and a marathon count process that has reshaped the nation’s political landscape.
Micheál Martin’s party has made a remarkable comeback, gaining 10 additional TDs and establishing itself as the dominant force in the new parliament. The party’s steady and understated campaign stands in stark contrast to the struggles of its competitors, presenting a masterclass in political communication and strategic positioning.
Simon Harris and Fine Gael have scraped through with 38 TDs, just three more seats than in 2020. Despite a campaign riddled with controversies and self-inflicted challenges, the party remains hopeful about remaining in government, potentially through a rotating Taoiseach arrangement. The party’s journey has been marked by public relations missteps, including a controversial candidate selection in Louth and an awkward encounter with a disability worker that dampened their electoral momentum.
Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Féin enters the Dáil with 39 seats, only two more than its 2020 performance. While avoiding a complete electoral disaster, the party finds itself without a clear path to government, ultimately positioned as a political outsider. The party’s performance is particularly noteworthy given the challenging year it has experienced and the multiple crises that threatened to derail its campaign.
The election saw significant movements among smaller parties. The Social Democrats, Labour, Aontú, and Independent Ireland all increased their representation, bringing fresh voices to the political discourse. In a dramatic and unexpected turn, the Green Party suffered a catastrophic collapse, retaining only one seat with party leader Roderic O’Gorman barely holding on.
With Fianna Fáil’s strong performance, a government formation appears likely to include Fine Gael as a minority partner, potentially supported by Independents or centre-left parties like Labour or the Social Democrats. The political landscape has been fundamentally rewritten, with all eyes now focused on the intricate negotiations that will shape Ireland’s next government.
As the dust settles on this transformative election, one thing becomes clear: Irish politics has entered a new and unpredictable era, with Fianna Fáil emerging as the unexpected phoenix rising from previous electoral challenges.