Ireland could lose approximately 25,000 jobs over the next year if President Donald Trump maintains his 10% tariffs on European products, according to a stark warning from the Department of Finance.
Speaking at the Global Ireland Summit, Taoiseach Micheál Martin cautioned that even if current trade disputes are resolved, the international trade landscape has fundamentally changed, with no return to previous arrangements likely.
“We do not believe that unilateral action is the way to resolve difference on trade; and we do not believe that tariffs solve problems. Dialogue solves problems,” Martin stated, characterizing trade wars as “lose-lose” scenarios.
Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe emphasized the gravity of the situation, describing it as “a time of immense uncertainty.” He noted that the analysis presented doesn’t even represent a worst-case scenario, as it excludes potential additional tariffs on Ireland’s vital pharmaceutical sector and recently announced levies on the film industry.
The economic impact is expected to be substantial, with Ireland’s modified domestic demand (MDD) growth projections significantly downgraded. Before the tariffs, MDD was forecast to grow by 2.5% this year and 2.8% in 2026. These estimates have now been revised to just 2% for this year and only 1% for next year.
The current analysis assumes the US maintains its 10% baseline tariff on European imports. However, this rate could potentially increase to 20% when the current tariff structure expires in July. The assessment also doesn’t account for possible retaliatory measures by the European Union or specific tariffs targeting pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
Tánaiste Simon Harris reaffirmed the government’s support for the EU’s approach to US trade tariffs and stressed the importance of European unity. The government is also developing a detailed action plan for trade diversification to identify new opportunities and alternative markets for Irish exports.
Meanwhile, European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic maintained a firm stance, stating that the EU is “not under undue pressure to accept a deal which would not be fair.” He revealed that American tariffs now cover 70% of EU goods exported to the United States, with potential to increase to 97% following additional US investigations into pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other products.
In a related development, President Trump told new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney there was nothing that would persuade him to lift tariffs on Canada. Trump also claimed China’s economy is “suffering greatly” due to his tariffs and suggested potential trade negotiations with Beijing.