A new ESRI study commissioned by the Department of Social Protection explores how the national consistent poverty target of 2 per cent by 2025 could be achieved.
The research estimates that increasing labour market participation of women could decrease the risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate by 2.9 percentage points while activating jobless households could decrease the risk-of-poverty rate by 2.1 percentage points.
This could translate into decreases in the rate of consistent poverty of around 1.2 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points, respectively. From a social transfer perspective, the increase of €1bn spent on a package of measures targeted at children, working-age adults or older people could reduce the whole population AROP rate by 2.3, 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points and consistent poverty by 1, 1, and 0.8 percentage points respectively. It is therefore likely that a mix of policy measures, including activation and social welfare, will be needed to reach the consistent poverty target rate of two per cent by 2025.
The research shows that over the period 2004-2019, lone parents and their children and working-age adults with disabilities and their children experienced the highest rates of at risk-of-poverty (AROP), deprivation and consistent poverty. Consistent poverty captures those who are both at risk of poverty and in deprivation.
The study found that, these groups have also the highest degree of overlap between income poverty and deprivation.
In 2019, 57 per cent of lone parents that were income poor were also deprived. This figure was 49 per cent for those living in households of working-age adults with disabilities. In 2019, these two groups together account for just over half of those in consistent poverty. In 2019, the consistent poverty rate was 5.5 per cent.
The ESRI has estimated an overall at risk poverty rate of 14% for 2022 but says that by increasing female labour force participation and hours worked to match those of men, this could be reduced to 11.1%.
The study also showed that if the head of all jobless households took up a job, this would substantially contribute to reducing at risk poverty rates by three percentage points for children and by two percentage points for the whole population.
Joe O’Brien, Minister of State with responsibility for Social Inclusion in the Department of Social Protection, noted “Government is committed to its ambitious target of reducing consistent poverty to 2% or lower by 2025, as set out in the Roadmap for Social Inclusion 2020 – 2025, our national strategy for poverty reduction and improved social inclusion. This report is an important contribution to inform policymaking in this area as it examines which means are most effective in reducing poverty.”